China’s Economic Slump Is Here to Stay
TimeMAR 2024
China Sets Ambitious 2024 Economic Growth Target
Image copyright: Lintao Zhang/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-China narrative
Despite the pessimistic Western media wishing for China to enter an economic downturn, China is thriving and looking ahead to even better days thanks to Beijing's well-designed reforms. The Chinese economy continues to grow, and its growth rate surpasses that of Western countries, whose economies are contracting.
Anti-China narrative
China's attempt to sell a moderate goal of 5% growth as "ambitious" shows it's facing a profound economic crisis. In short, China is in the midst of a cyclical debt crisis similar to the one that hit the former "economic miracle" Japan. The eventual collapse of the Chinese bubble was inevitable, and Beijing can't hide from its stubborn economic downturn.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 57% chance that China's GDP will exceed the US' GDP in any year before 2041, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
