“This Must End”: Israel Orders New Mass Evacuation, Continuing Attacks on Gaza Health System
Democracy NowJUN 2024
Israel to Send Delegation to Resume Gaza Cease-Fire Negotiations
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Image copyright: Amir Levy/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
A guaranteed end to the war will ensure increased humanitarian aid to the besieged enclave, preserve Israel's security, and create a better "day after" in Gaza without Hamas in power. The US will continue to work toward closing the gaps and ensuring that peace and stability can be restored to the region.
Pro-Israel narrative
Israel has overcome many obstacles in this war, but there are still plenty of challenges. Though Hamas has been seriously degraded, its leadership is still largely intact and hostages are still being held in Gaza. Military pressure has forced Hamas to make concessions, but due to foreign and domestic pressures, Israel will also likely have to make painful concessions of its own. Nonetheless, Israel must retain security control over Gaza to prevent another Oct. 7 terrorist attack.
Metaculus Prediction
Though Israel's war on Gaza must end as soon as possible, it is clear that Israel wants to indefinitely occupy the strip. Israel has failed miserably at defeating Hamas, as it continues to re-emerge in areas Israel has deemed "cleared." Indeed, Netanyahu's political ambitions incentivize him to perpetuate this genocidal campaign as long as possible, even if his rivals are just as bad for Palestinians. Regardless of a deal, this war has no end in sight.
Narrative D
Hezbollah and the regional resistance continue to demonstrate their military capabilities, even if they are more than willing to observe a cease-fire in Gaza. Ultimately, the resistance's primary goal is to end the war in Gaza, not start a larger regional conflict. However, Israel's genocidal actions and constant threats may indicate that a larger war is coming. Indeed, Hezbollah is ready to defend Lebanon.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 61% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
