Israeli Forces Advance Deeper Into Rafah

Above: A man carries items on his back as people remove possessions from their homes following Israeli airstrikes on April 13, 2024 in Khan Yunis, Gaza. Image copyright: Ahmad Hasaballah/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Israeli forces advanced toward the center of Rafah in southern Gaza on Wednesday after an intense night of bombardment. Residents and militants said tanks moved west, reaching the edge of the eastern Yibna neighborhood, though they have not yet entered the area due to heavy fighting.

  • Israeli forces also pressed ahead with their advance in Jabalia in the north of the strip, after launching an offensive into the area two weeks ago. Airstrikes were reported across the enclave.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the humanitarian situation in Gaza has gotten out of hand, and the Biden administration will not support any further offensive action in Rafah. Netanyahu must keep his promises and work with US allies to find a resolution to this conflict.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel has reached a decisive point in Gaza. If Israel gives in to international pressure, it will make clear to Israel's enemies that the country is weak and cannot stand up for itself. Such weakness will only encourage another attack like Oct. 7., which is simply unacceptable. Israel must continue to push into Rafah and win this war.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas but against the Palestinian people as a whole. The humanitarian situation in Gaza is already far beyond catastrophic, and Israel's brutal offensive on Rafah has displaced almost 1M people — most of whom were already living in tent camps. Israeli crimes keep stacking up, yet the international community and the US refuse to do anything meaningful to stop the carnage.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO