Palestinian Officials: Armed Factions to Provide Security for Aid Delivery

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The Facts

  • Reportedly several clans, civil society groups, and factions — including Fatah, which partially runs the West Bank and has been Hamas' main rival — have emerged to provide security for aid convoys traveling through the Gaza Strip, as social order has largely collapsed.

  • Palestinian and Hamas officials have said that Hamas has been able to rally different groups behind it in an attempt to prevent Israel from building its own local administrative system to run the strip's civil affairs, which includes aid delivery and security provision. Israeli military officials declined to comment.


The Spin

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel's plans to create a "clan-based" administration in Gaza is absurd and doomed to failure. If anything, Hamas will simply utilize these societal elements to its benefit, easily sidelining other actors that try to make inroads with Gaza's clans, namely the PA. Indeed, Israeli plans to either establish its own clan-based system or have the PA do it have already failed, and Israel must accept responsibility for the disaster it created.

Pro-establishment narrative

Though there's surely merit in investigating different possibilities for Gaza's post-war civil administration, the primary goal must be to facilitate the return of the PA to Gaza. With the vacuum left by Hamas' departure from large swaths of the strip, the only other Palestinian political faction with the experience and infrastructure to manage the strip's affairs is the PA. The US will always support Israel's security, but Israel must be willing to compromise so this situation can be remedied.

Pro-Israel narrative

A purely clan-based approach to running Gaza would likely fail, but that doesn't mean the idea doesn't possess merit. Clans could play an important role in Gaza's post-war civil administration with the right structures and context to support them. Israel should continue probing this idea to see if there are ways to make it work because stabilizing Gaza after the war will be the next large battle.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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