Russian envoy predicts conflict outcome that weakens US
RTMAR 2024
Pentagon Chief: Ukraine's Survival in Danger
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Image copyright: Thomas Nierdermueller/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
While the situation may feel distant to politicians and spectators in the West, that's not the case for those facing the brunt of Russian attacks. Without ammunition and artillery, Ukraine is being left almost defenseless and it's imperative that this situation is rectified urgently if Ukraine is to stand any chance.
Pro-Russia narrative
Aside from the avoidable loss of Ukrainian territory and men throughout this conflict, Ukraine's counteroffensive has failed and Kyiv is now losing the war. More money for arms will simply bring about more death and destruction. Ukraine would never have fought this war against Russia without US and EU weapons. Now that these weapons are running dry, Ukraine must accept the reality that Russia will never cease its defense of the Donbas or Crimea.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 7% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
