Israeli strike kills 16 at Gaza school, military says it targeted gunmen
NBCJUL 2024
Report: Israel, Hamas Open to 'Interim Governance' in Gaza
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The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
A guaranteed end to the war will ensure increased humanitarian aid to the besieged enclave, preserve Israel's security, and create a better "day after" in Gaza without Hamas in power. The US will continue to work toward closing the gaps and ensuring that peace and stability can be restored to the region.
Pro-Israel narrative
Israel wants to make a deal and get its hostages back, but it can't allow Hamas to stay in power. If Hamas is allowed to remain in power in Gaza, the group will immediately begin planning the next Oct. 7 terrorist attack. Though there are pressures at home and abroad to end the war prematurely, Israel must do what is best for its citizens.
Metaculus Prediction
Though Israel's war on Gaza must end as soon as possible, it's clear that Israel wants to occupy the strip indefinitely. Israel has failed miserably at defeating Hamas, as it continues to re-emerge in areas Israel has deemed "cleared." Indeed, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political ambitions incentivize him to perpetuate this genocidal campaign as long as possible.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 50% chance that Benjamin Netanyahu will cease to be prime minister of Israel by March 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
