At NATO summit, Zelensky presses for US greenlight to hit Russian bases
Defense OneJUL 2024
Russia Warns of Military Response to US Missile Deployment in Germany
Above: Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov on April 20, 2021 in Moscow, Russia. Image copyright: Mikhail Svetlov/Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
The decision to deploy advanced missile systems in Germany — including hypersonic missiles capable of striking deep inside Russia — comes just at the right time, given Russia's expansionist ambitions. The move demonstrates the US commitment to NATO and its contributions to Europe's integrated deterrence, which is vital as Germany and Europe don't yet possess the necessary deterrent capabilities. NATO will not back down and is prepared to counter Russia's escalation policy resolutely.
Establishment-critical narrative
The stationing of long-range missiles in Germany opens a new chapter in NATO's so-called "security policy." It was not without reason that the US unilaterally withdrew from the INF Treaty in 2019, following its Cold War logic and the interests of the military-industrial complex. The destabilizing step that has been announced aligns with this strategy and is a direct threat to Russia, international security, and strategic stability. Moscow will not stand idly by and will respond appropriately in due time.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 10% chance that there will be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
