Sunak’s snap election looks like a calamitous error
Spectator (UK)MAY 2024
Rwanda Elections: Voters Head to the Polls
Image copyright: Christophe Calais/Contributor/Corbis Historical via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
This election will determine whether Rwanda continues its stability and economic growth path. Under Kagame's leadership, the traumatized country experienced a transformation hardly thought possible. However, much work must be done to ensure that all Rwandans can enjoy its fruits. Regardless of who ultimately wins the race, thanks to Kagame, Rwanda — unlike many countries that lecture others about democracy — is united and peaceful, with no violence expected during the elections.
Narrative B
One can't speak of a democratic election if the outcome is already known in advance, as in the case of Rwanda. Not only had opposition members campaigned under severe restrictions, but many had been threatened, harassed, beaten, and detained without charges. Moreover, few benefit from Rwanda's development, and young Rwandans suffer from high unemployment. Rwandans have little choice but to prepare for another five years under Kagame's iron fist.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 98% chance that Paul Kagame will win the 2024 presidential election in Rwanda, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
