The Themes of the 2024 RNC Convention Are Here
TownhallJUL 2024
Trump Arrives in Milwaukee for Republican National Convention
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Above: Jeff Kaufmann, Chair of the Republican Party of Iowa speaks on the first day of the Republican National Convention on July 15, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Image copyright: Joe Raedle/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Republican narrative
Trump, who has survived lawfare, character assassinations, and now a real-life assassination attempt, has proven himself one of the toughest presidential candidates in American history. Despite everything thrown at him, he's a shoo-in for the nomination and likely the presidency. With Trump's record as a fighter now on high-definition display, it's time for the GOP to take the momentum and run with it to victory.
Democratic narrative
The Republican Party has relied on the themes of victimhood and political persecution to build its brand, and it couldn't ask for anything more than for this convention to take place so soon after the attempt to assassinate Trump. Biden and Democrats have condemned the shooting and other violent rhetoric, but that won't stop the GOP from attempting to sway voters with more toxic rhetoric over the next few days.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 1% chance that Trump will win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
