The D Brief: Orban in Kyiv; Russia presides over UNSC; NATO’s new Kyiv posting; Army to field EW backpacks; And a bit more.
Defense OneJUL 2024
Ukraine to Receive More Aid as Russia Advances in Key Town
Image copyright: Kevin Dietsch/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
If the US does not provide a firm commitment to Ukraine on NATO membership, it signals to Putin that he is able to influence American foreign policy by launching an illegal invasion. The US must stick to its guns and realize that having Ukraine in NATO is the best way to protect American interests in the region.
Establishment-critical narrative
Promising Ukraine NATO membership would only give Putin more reason to prolong the war and does nothing to serve Western interests. In fact, it would challenge NATO's Article 5 on collective defense and risk rupturing the whole military alliance, leaving NATO much weaker than where it started.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 25% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine by Jan. 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
