US Election: Electoral System Overview

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The Facts

  • CONSTITUTIONAL REPUBLIC ESTABLISHED: A decade after declaring independence, leaders from 12 of the original 13 US states gathered to draft and ratify the US Constitution, establishing the federal government's three branches. Americans vote for Congress — which includes the House of Representatives and Senate — and the president, who appoints members of the judiciary (the third branch) with Senate approval.

  • ELECTORAL COLLEGE SYSTEM: Instead of a direct popular vote, the president is chosen by a slate of electors from each state, plus Washington, DC, known as the "Electoral College." States hold popular votes to determine which candidate gets their electoral votes. There are 538 electors, with each state's number based on its House members, plus two Senators. Typically, the winner of a state takes all its electoral votes, and the candidate with 270 votes wins the presidency.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The Electoral College is a key feature of the US constitution, designed to balance power and prevent majority tyranny, reflecting the founders' vision. Despite Trump's 2016 victory prompting criticism, with some arguing it doesn't reflect the will of the people, the Electoral College has aligned with the popular vote in 54 of 59 elections. The system operates as intended, ensuring equal representation and preventing a few major cities from dominating national decisions, giving citizens from all 50 states a voice.

Establishment-critical narrative

The Electoral College has long faced scrutiny for failing to reflect the popular will, and it's time to consider significant overhauls. While it was originally designed to prevent the "uneducated masses" from electing an unfit president, electors are now bound to their state's popular vote. This shift has concentrated power in a few states, straying from the founders' intent. True democratic justice requires reforming or abolishing the Electoral College, expanding the electorate, and opposing all voter suppression laws.


Metaculus Prediction


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Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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