The Vance Warning
AtlanticSep 22
US Election Issue: Iran
context
Above: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran, Iran on Feb. 18, 2020. Image copyright: Iranian Supreme Leader Press Office/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
The Facts
OVERVIEW: Iran and the US have had a hostile relationship since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, when US-backed monarch Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was overthrown and replaced by an Islamic Republic under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. The Islamic Revolution also created tensions between Iran and US ally Saudi Arabia. Since the founding of the Islamic Republic, the US and Iran have been on opposing sides of regional conflicts including the Iran-Iraq War, the Syrian Civil War, and the Yemen conflict.
THE JCPOA: Iran, China, France, Russia, the UK, the US, and Germany agreed in 2015 to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This aimed to monitor and restrict Iran's nuclear program for up to 15 years in exchange for lifting sanctions. The Trump admin. abandoned the deal in 2018 and reimposed all sanctions with new punitive measures. In 2020, the US killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Qassem Soleimani, prompting Iran to attack US military installations in Iraq.
The Spin
Republican narrative
Hamas' Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel should prove that the Democrats' policies of weakness and appeasement will only lead to further war and conflict. Had Trump been in office, Iran wouldn't have dared launch an attack against US allies. Indeed, Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon is an existential threat to US security, and Trump is more than willing to deter such actions through force. The US must use its strength to prevent terror states from holding entire regions hostage.
Democratic narrative
Trump's recklessness will make the situation in the Middle East worse. Trump's actions, specifically pulling out of the JCPOA, emboldened hardliners within the Iranian regime. If Iran had been more integrated into the global economy, it would have been more likely to prevent Hamas from launching its Oct. 7 terror attack. Harris and the Democrats view diplomacy as a more effective tool for countering American adversaries, but the party will defend Israel and its regional allies by force if necessary.
Establishment-critical narrative
Though Iran certainly has problematic governance, it's not in the US' interests to go to war with a country that's barely a regional power, let alone a global power. Israel has spent the last year trying to provoke Iran into a wider conflict with the goal of dragging the US into a pointless war. Tens of thousands have already been killed because the US has failed to reign in its so-called allies. American soldiers should not die to defend dictatorships and an intransigent Israeli regime.
