Three things to know about Venezuela's presidential election
NBCAUG 2024
US Says Venezuela's Opposition Candidate Won Presidential Election
Above: Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado and opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez wave a Venezuelan Flag during a protest against the result of the presidential election on July 30, 2024 in Caracas, Venezuela. Image copyright: Alfredo Lasry R/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
This mockery of an election has shown that all efforts to ensure a peaceful democratic transition for Venezuela were in vain because Maduro never really intended to carry out free and fair elections — let alone to leave power. The US has already recognized González as the rightful winner, so now the rest of the world's democracies must follow suit.
Establishment-critical narrative
Available results are statistically irreversible and have already been audited 16 times, so it's clear that the US is pushing for a coup in Venezuela. Declaring González the winner only shows its willingness to justify armed action to topple President-elect Nicolás Maduro and appoint a puppet to run the oil-rich country in disregard of the will of Venezuelans.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 56% chance that the US will sanction Venezuelan oil again by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
