US and Europe warn Lebanon's Hezbollah to ease strikes on Israel and back off from wider Mideast war
IndependentDEC 2024
US Sends Armed Submarine to Middle East
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Above: US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin greets Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant at the Pentagon on June 25, 2024. Image credit: Andrew Harnik/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
While Iran and its proxies will cite the assassinations as their reason for their recent attacks, Israel had to target the men who were intentionally stalling Gaza cease-fire talks. If Iran-backed militias choose to remain on the offensive, the US and Israel — who are interested in completing a cease-fire Hamas refuses to accept — have no choice but to flex all their might to stop these terrorists from making any big moves.
Establishment-critical narrative
The cease-fire deal that was reportedly approved by Israel was a farce from the beginning, and Netanyahu lied to the US about it. Then, likely with the help of US intelligence agencies, Israel carried out unprovoked assassinations — calculated actions by Israel, which was hoping to make it look like Iran-backed proxies were obstructing peace and readying for war. If there's an escalation here, the US and Israeli warmongers will be to blame.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 91% chance that there will be1k or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
