Canada Deploys Troops After Hurricane Fiona Landfall

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The Spin

Narrative A

While three-to-four named storms can enter Canadian waters each hurricane season, Fiona's intensity and track were unusual. Unfortunately, these impacts are expected as Canada is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world. With Arctic warming — rather than tropical warming — likely to continue, severe storms like Fiona will be more likely in Canada in the years ahead.

Narrative B

While there's a great deal of speculation about Arctic warming causing weather patterns that can fling hurricanes inland, the links are not straightforward. There is no clear consensus yet of what the definition of these "blocking patterns" even are, much less if Arctic warming even has an effect. Much more needs to be done to understand the complex physics involved before jumping to conclusions about specific storms.

Metaculus Prediction


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