US Midterms: DeSantis Beats Crist in Fla. Gov. Race

Image copyright: AFP/Getty Images [via NBC News]

The Spin

Republican narrative

DeSantis' policies reflect American principles and must serve as a model for the entire nation. Turning Florida into a refuge of sanity by fighting authoritarianism and "wokeism" has seen him consolidate support and ensure this historic result. This new mandate positions DeSantis as a strong contender for 2024, especially considering the fate of Trump's candidates in the midterm elections.

Democratic narrative

DeSantis's policies during his first governorship should be enough to provoke a major backlash, but Democrats have allowed his re-election by failing to invest in Crist's campaign. Democrats should have done more to target DeSantis and highlight the issues in Florida that he has failed to address — now the new governor will be emboldened to carry out further controversial policies and possibly even run for GOP presidential nomination.

Establishment-critical narrative

DeSantis has performed impressively, but Donald Trump should not be counted out of the 2024 presidential election just yet. Only a fraction of the party faithful that publicly supported Trump through these midterms has peeled off, and his ability to raise campaign funding remains strong. Although DeSantis looks like a convincing presidential nominee, he is yet to prove his appeal beyond the state of Florida — could current commentary be yet another premature declaration of Trump's demise?

Metaculus Prediction


Political split

LEFT

RIGHT