Armenia and Azerbaijan Exchange Prisoners of War

Armenia and Azerbaijan Exchange Prisoners of War
Image copyright: Astrig Agopian/Getty Images News via Getty Images (Sept. 25, 2023)

The Spin

Narrative A

The agreement of a prisoner exchange between Azerbaijan and Armenia is a historic development that the region is hopeful will be the first step towards an end to hostilities. Amicable developments are an unexpected turn after decades of conflict, and the unified call for security surely paves the way toward further reconciliation via a peace treaty.

Narrative B

A peace treaty does not need to be in place to advance improved bilateral relations between Baku and Yerevan. The prisoner exchange is a helpful example that, even without a peace treaty, the two nations can cooperate without an accord. Although inevitably still the end goal, practical normalization must be prioritized over a rushed approach towards ink on paper.

Metaculus Prediction


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