The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Though these talks aren't likely to produce any major breakthrough in the US-China relationship, the meeting is itself a positive development after months of tensions amid heavy global turmoil. As the Biden administration has listed Sino-American stability among its top foreign policy priorities so as to prevent another world crisis, this is certainly a first and necessary step to achieve this vital geopolitical goal.

Establishment-critical narrative

This long-awaited meeting comes as the US — still reluctant to back off — has realized that its military pressure on Beijing will never break the PRC's resolve to protect its territorial sovereignty and national security, but rather risks creating the conditions for a potential crisis to turn into a military conflict. Hopefully, the US has come to its senses and will finally stabilize relations with China as part of a realization that the world order is now strongly multipolar and no longer dominated by American hegemony.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


Go Deeper


Establishment split

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