Canada, China Escalate Diplomatic Row

Image copyright: Wall Street Journal

The Spin

Anti-China narrative

The Canadian government has carefully assessed the options to retaliate against allegations that Chinese diplomats had threatened a minister of parliament, anticipating potential Chinese backlash and the risks to the safety of the people and the prosperity of the country. The expulsion of Zhao Wei is the right measure to punish Beijing as it will not prompt harsher consequences for Canada. Some have said Trudeau hasn't gone far enough, but this was a calculated diplomatic move against aggressive PRC meddling.

Pro-China narrative

Ottawa has dangerously and recklessly become more confrontational towards Beijing due to domestic political infighting, undermining bilateral relations, and promoting fabricated claims to smear China. Beijing has never meddled in the internal affairs of other countries, and its diplomatic and consular personnel have always complied with international conventions and bilateral agreements. Canada must work hard to return to international norms for Beijing to restore its trust.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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