Finland Formally Joins NATO

Image copyright: AFP [via France 24]

The Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

Finland’s accession to NATO is a huge affront to Putin as Moscow’s geopolitical calculations worsen. The Atlantic Alliance has now doubled its border with Russia, despite the Kremlin's previous threats against Nordic countries for attempting to join NATO. Putin's war on Ukraine has brought the exact opposite of what he hoped for.

Pro-Russia narrative

While Russia is certainly not thrilled about Finland joining NATO, the Kremlin is not overly concerned. Moscow will do what it must to reinforce its military capabilities on its western and northwestern borders, but Russia does not pose a threat to Finland or Sweden. This is more of a non-event than Western governments would like to convey.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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