The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

In the past few years, France has stepped up efforts to apprehend and prosecute genocide suspects. This is the sixth case about the genocide in Rwanda that is making its way through the legal system in Paris, however, since the genocide took place thirty years ago and firsthand accounts are getting harder to come by, it's getting harder and harder to prosecute the alleged perpetrators of the crime. The victims of this horrible murder have been able to seek justice and accountability because of collective efforts and a "universal jurisdiction," which permits France to try major human rights crimes committed outside the nation under specific circumstances.

Establishment-critical narrative

When it comes to prosecuting those who are accused of committing the genocide in Rwanda, France's "universal jurisdiction" has some serious problems. The genocide occurred far away and was three decades ago. Over time, the evidence has deteriorated and there are a plethora of problems including the challenges of credible witness testimony after such a long time. It's not reasonable to believe that the Paris Assize Court has the right tools for delivering fair sentences. Sadly there are deep systemic problems in the global system allowing for the swift and effective prosecution of perpetrators of genocide.

Metaculus Prediction


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