Global Debt Surges to Record $307T

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The Spin

Narrative A

Rising debt has been a global concern for a while, and has become a more urgent one since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2019. A high debt-to-GDP ratio reduces space for fresh investment as more funds are directed toward debt-servicing, which hampers growth. Country-level structural reforms and international cooperation in taxation are required to help ease national finances.

Narrative B

While concerns over rising global debt must be paid heed to, it should also be noted that the effect of debt varies among nations, meaning that adjustment costs can vary. At the macro level, consumer debt remains largely manageable; central banks have retained some wriggle room and markets shouldn't be overly spooked.

Metaculus Prediction


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