Tropical Storm Hilary Slams Southwest US and Baja California, Mexico

Image copyright: NOAA [via Wikimedia Commons]

The Spin

Narrative A

Scientists agree that climate change is making hurricanes worse and increasing the likelihood of dangerous powerful storms. Global warming is also increasing the amount of rain that storms can produce and rapidly intensifying the strength and reach of tropical systems. This trend is real and it is worrying. Governments need to take action against climate change before things get worse.

Narrative B

Global warming should not be the scapegoat for every extreme weather event. The major reason for an increase in hurricane-related damage is not due to an increase in the number or intensity of hurricanes, but rather because more people live within the paths of these storms. Rather than fearmongering, authorities should focus on reducing vulnerability along coastlines and rehabilitating wetlands.

Metaculus Prediction


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