Russia, Syria, Turkey, Iran Hold High-Level Talks In Moscow

Image copyright: Tass [via The Moscow Times]

The Spin


Narrative A

The quadrilateral meeting is yet another milestone for the Russia-Iran-brokered reconciliation between Turkey and Syria. It also indicates that Syria's efforts to move beyond war and seek regional reintegration continue to gain momentum despite terrorism, separatism, and US forces' ongoing occupation of Syrian territory. Turkey appears to want to join this trend, and although complex issues remain to be resolved, the mere fact that talks are taking place will benefit both countries' people and regional security.


Narrative B

Ankara's support for the Syrian regime's reintegration into the Arab fold and the détente between the Syrian regime and autocratic Turkey underscores populist Erdoğan's shameful policies. While he now seeks reconciliation with dictator Assad to score points in the upcoming polls, Ankara backed extremists and jihadists to topple Erdoğan's former friend. The West, which shares responsibility for the genesis of regional misery, has a moral duty to prevent the Syrian tyrant's return to the world stage.


Narrative C

Given recent developments in the region, the time has come for Washington to admit that existing US policy toward Assad has failed to deliver. Instead of continuing to rely on sanctions and isolating the regime — and thus increasing the population's hardship — Washington will gain more leverage to get concessions from Assad if it supports Syria's reconciliation with its Arab neighbors and Turkey. Only this approach will help the US regain its leadership role in regional diplomacy.


Metaculus Prediction


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