South Korea Holds First Military Parade in 10 Years

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The Spin

Narrative A

While this parade is projecting an image of the strength and unity of South Korea and its military allies, the biggest impact is not going to be felt internationally but instead domestically. The elaborate display of the parade and its celebrations show the South Korean people that their country is now an important global power and underlines the success of the country's defense exports industry.

Narrative B

The arms race in Asia risks spiraling out of control, with the US and its allies Japan and South Korea, China and its partnership with Russia, and North Korea each vying for control of contentious land and sea areas. With no measures of restraint or arms control, the situation is likely to continue to worsen, as deterrence and escalation are often one and the same.

Metaculus Prediction


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