US Layoffs Up Nearly 200% in 2023

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The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Despite fears that the Fed's rate hikes — which were necessary in the face of record inflation — would lead to reduced spending, job cuts, and high unemployment, the actual outcome has been more positive. Inflation has decreased from 9.1% to 3.7%, and unemployment remains below 4%. Furthermore, inflation was driven more by supply disruptions from the pandemic and geopolitical events rather than overheated demand. If current trends persist, the Fed might actually achieve a soft landing.

Establishment-critical narrative

It's not the Fed but rather the bond market, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield, that has the biggest impact on rising interest rates in everyday life. As the Fed and China have bought up most of the US's $33T debt, Americans should be concerned about when the creditors demand higher interest rates. The US Treasury yield is the most important asset in the world, but Washington continues to spend recklessly while bickering about the less consequential Fed rate.

Metaculus Prediction


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