The Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia continues to make gains in Bakhmut, with all Ukrainian supply routes in and out of the city under the control of artillery fire. It's only a matter of time before Russian forces claim complete control over Donetsk city.

Anti-Russia narrative

Fierce fighting has already been going on in Bakhmut for months, and even if Russia prevails, it will have lost so many men and so much equipment that the result could hardly be celebrated. A Moscow victory in the region might be a symbolic gain but would provide little strategic benefit in the wider conflict.

Metaculus Prediction


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