Venezuela: Government Agrees to Hold Elections in 2024

Venezuela: Government Agrees to Hold Elections in 2024
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The Spin


Narrative A

The agreement is a significant success for Venezuela's future as a sovereign state. The fact that both sides agreed on political and electoral guarantees is also a victory for the Maduro government, as these provide the framework for peaceful elections under the Venezuelan constitution and without Western interference. However, what was achieved in Barbados is only the first step toward a much broader pact. Hopefully, the deal will provide Venezuela with long-term stability.


Narrative B

The agreement is a glimmer of hope for Venezuela, but it remains to be seen whether Maduro will follow through on the agreed-upon electoral process — including establishing a procedure to lift the bans that prevent his primary opponents from running. Given Venezuela's deep social and economic crisis, which the repressive regime is responsible for, let's hope Maduro doesn't try to hold onto power again through rigged elections — despite international observers. The international community must remain vigilant for the sake of Venezuela's future.


Metaculus Prediction


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