Blinken Arrives in Saudi Arabia as Hamas Considers Hostage Deal

Blinken Arrives in Saudi Arabia as Hamas Considers Hostage Deal
Image copyright: Jordan Pix/Getty Images News via Getty Images (Nov 4, 2023, Amman, Jordan)

The Facts

  • US Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Saudi Arabia on Monday as part of a diplomatic tour through the region to discuss a possible hostage deal to which Hamas has not yet officially responded. Blinken is also reportedly set to discuss regional escalation and US strikes against Iranian-backed groups.

  • As the likelihood of a deal being agreed upon soon remains unclear, there are growing concerns that Israeli forces will advance into the southern city of Rafah — a tiny pocket of the territory in which over 1M displaced Palestinians are sheltering. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that the majority of Hamas's battalions in Gaza had been destroyed, adding that the rest were in the south and Israel would "deal with them."


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere and is taking the right steps to wind down its military operations in Gaza, as it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Nevertheless, the US is prepared to defend its allies in the region and deter threats to regional and global security.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a terrorist army with far greater military capabilities than Hamas, and Israel cannot allow its citizens residing in the north to live under the constant threat of terrorist attacks. The UN resolution that ended the 2006 war with Hezbollah has failed to ensure Israel's security, and if some sort of new arrangement is not made, Israel will be forced to intervene. Likewise, in Gaza, Hamas's military capabilities must be eliminated to ensure Israel's security.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel continues to demonstrate that its war is not against Hamas or Hezbollah but against the Palestinian and Lebanese people as a whole. Nowhere in Gaza is safe, and Israel has effectively rendered large swaths of the strip uninhabitable. Israel is killing Palestinians at an unprecedented rate and has transformed Gaza into a wasteland. Though the US, Israel's biggest ally, wants to minimize the war's intensity, it must instead exert more pressure to end the war completely.

Narrative D

Hezbollah has so far successfully deterred Israel from violating Lebanon's sovereignty while also avoiding a devastating war that it does not want. Hezbollah cannot allow Israel to undertake such deplorable actions without consequence, and it has made concrete military gains against Israeli forces along the border. Israel, backed by the US, is committing atrocious crimes in Gaza to which Hezbollah has been forced to respond. Though Hezbollah seeks to end the bloodshed, it is ready to defend Lebanon.


Metaculus Prediction


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