Canada Curbing Immigration as Elections Approach

Canada Curbing Immigration as Elections Approach
Image copyright: John Lamparski/Contributor/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Ahead of the expected 2025 national elections, Canada has seen a surge in the number of foreign nationals being turned back at the borders, government data shows.

  • The number of people denied entry into Canada each month in the first seven months of 2024 stood at an average of 3,727, 20% higher than in the same period the previous year.


The Spin

Narrative A

Curbing immigration is not the solution to Canada’s challenges. Despite concerns about declining GDP per capita and productivity, the country faces a significant demographic crisis, with more people retiring than entering the workforce. Freezing immigration would exacerbate this issue, leading to an unsustainable burden on working Canadians. Immigration is essential for maintaining living standards, addressing labor shortages, and boosting productivity.

Narrative B

Immigration is not the solution to Canada’s economic challenges. Despite record levels of immigration, the country has seen stagnant income growth, declining productivity, and a lack of business investment. Increasing the number of newcomers without improving economic conditions, Canada risks losing its appeal to both current residents and potential immigrants.


Metaculus Prediction


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