Canada's Trudeau Survives No-Confidence Vote

Canada's Trudeau Survives No-Confidence Vote
Above: On Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024, Canada's prime minister Justin Trudeau speaks virtually at a Joint Declaration of Support for Ukrainian Recovery and Reconstruction launch in New York. Image copyright: Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg via Getty Images

The Facts

  • On Wednesday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau successfully fended off a vote of no-confidence as opposition leader Pierre Poilievre was unable to win over the New Democratic Party (NDP) and Bloc Québécois leaders.

  • In public opinion polls, Poilievre, the Conservative Party leader, is in the lead and has expressed interest in a snap election after the NDP withdrew its coalition agreement with the Liberals at the beginning of September.

  • Wednesday's measure against Trudeau's Cabinet failed by a vote of 211 to 120. Trudeau, however, is expected to face a budget confidence vote as early as Thursday.

The Spin

Left narrative

Wednesday was a loss for the Conservative Party but a win for Canada. By defeating the motion of no-confidence, Trudeau's minority government was able to avoid the chaos of a forced resignation and subsequent snap election. At a time when stability is crucial, triggering a political crisis would have been reckless and irresponsible.

Right narrative

Many Canadians are rightfully holding Trudeau personally responsible for the rising inflation and high cost of living. His popularity has been declining for years, with most believing Poilievre has the best plan when it comes to crucial issues like housing, health care, and the economy. It's time for Trudeau to do what's best for the country — step down.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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