CIA Chief to Discuss Hostage Deal with Qatari, Egyptian, and Israeli Officials

CIA Chief to Discuss Hostage Deal with Qatari, Egyptian, and Israeli Officials
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The Spin

Pro-Palestine narrative

Israel is losing its war in Gaza. After over three months and 25K dead Palestinians, Israel has failed to release hostages via military operations, to kill Hamas's top leaders, or to create conditions advantageous to ending this long drawn-out conflict. Even then, if Israel did manage to achieve the majority of its war goals, it still would be left without a clear plan of action for the day after the war. Destroying a group like Hamas is unfeasible, and Netanyahu has dug Israel into a hole that it will have a tough time climbing out of. Israel should accept a comprehensive ceasefire.

Pro-Israel narrative

Though this war has not been easy, Israel has made steady progress in Gaza, first neutralizing Gaza City before moving on to other population centers like Khan Younis. Israel has substantially degraded Hamas's military capabilities and leadership and even partially degraded elite Hezbollah units stationed along Israel's northern border, greatly increasing its leverage in negotiations. Indeed, as Israel's enemies should recognize, Israel's raw military power should not even be up for debate, and the country will fight and negotiate as it sees fit to achieve its goals.

Metaculus Prediction


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