Avg survival rate of cancers to exceed 75%
MetaculusAPR 1 2023
The steep decline in cervical cancer deaths demonstrates the remarkable success of the HPV vaccination program, proving it to be one of the most effective cancer prevention tools ever developed. The vaccine's ability to prevent multiple types of cancer makes it a crucial public health intervention that could lead to the first-ever elimination of a cancer type.
The current vaccination rates remain suboptimal and are declining, putting future generations at unnecessary risk. The pandemic has disrupted vaccination programs, and persistent health inequities mean that the vast majority of cervical cancer deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries, showing serious gaps in global cancer prevention efforts.
While this is promising news, it's misleading to credit the HPV vaccine alone for this decline. There are so many other variables that could have contributed to these numbers, and it's not clear how many of the women in the study were even vaccinated. Further research is needed.