Israel Strikes Lebanon as Hezbollah Fires Rockets
The Spin
Pro-Israel narrative
This war is based on the right of existence of Jewish people and the state of Israel. The IDF operated in self-defense from Hezbollah as it was planning to attack Israeli civilians. While the country doesn't seek a full-scale war, it will do everything to protect its people and territory. Israel's war in Gaza will continue until Hamas is rooted out of the coastal territory.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel has tried to build a narrative that its war against Hamas is based on its right to self-defense. However, Israel doesn't have the right to use force on territory on which the Palestinians are entitled to exercise their right of self-determination. It's not Hezbollah's military targets on an aggressor, but Israel's indiscriminate attacks on civilians that risk drawing the whole region into a full-blown war.
Narrative C
This dangerous conflict is threatening to expand and spiral out of control. While Hezbollah's ongoing aggression risks dragging the people of Lebanon into a broader escalation, any significant escalation in the fighting could morph into a regional conflagration drawing Hezbollah's backer, Iran, and Israel's ally, the US. The international community must end the bloodshed in Gaza immediately.
Metaculus Prediction
Public Figures
The Controversies
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