Libya: Central Bank Chief Flees From Militias

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The Spin

Narrative A

If this crisis goes unsolved for too long, Libya's oil-dependent economy could collapse, leading to financial devastation for millions and an all-out war between militant factions. Luckily, al-Kabir still maintains control of the bank's online systems from afar and enjoys protection from Turkey. al-Kabir must work to combat outside influences like Russia while also offering to negotiate with his internal enemies.

Narrative B

While this crisis is undoubtedly a fight over money and power, Libyan groups aren't the only ones involved. Ever since the UN and US inserted al-Kabir into leadership in 2011, he's done nothing but run out of money and overcharge people. To act as if warring factions just randomly decided to hate the man is ludicrous, and Libya's economy won't heal until the West stops meddling in its affairs.

Metaculus Prediction


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