No Clear Outcome After Hill Dems Hold Key Meetings About Biden's Future

No Clear Outcome After Hill Dems Hold Key Meetings About Biden's Future
Above: House Democratic Caucus Chairman Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) and Vice Chair of the Democratic Caucus Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) answer questions during a press conference on July 9, 2024 in Washington, DC. Image copyright: Bonnie Cash/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Tuesday had been expected to be a decisive day for the political future of US Pres. Joe Biden as House and Senate Democrats held separate meetings, but talks are set to continue through the week signaling that the divide over the viability of his candidacy persists.

  • Senate Democrats refrained from sharing details on their closed-door lunch meeting, with Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) saying only that they had a "constructive conversation" focused on "beating" former Pres. Donald Trump.


The Spin

Narrative A

This decision isn't about Biden or the Democratic elites, it's about the people. The president had one bad debate, but that doesn't change the fact that the people overwhelmingly chose him as the party's nominee, and during recent campaign stops and talks with voters, it's become evident his support is still rock-solid among those he wants to continue to represent and those who want to defeat Trump.

Narrative B

Biden is going on the offensive, but not as much to defend himself against the calls to step aside as he's continuing the strategy of downplaying peoples' concerns over his health and ability to serve, let alone beat Trump. These worries go well beyond the party elites, as polling shows voters are losing faith in the president and could be thinking they voted for someone without knowing all the details.

Republican narrative

Biden’s cognitive decline has been obvious for years, yet the Democrats refused to hold a legitimate primary, denying voters the opportunity to select a new candidate. Now, they're looking to replace Biden in a dysfunctional secretive process involving party insiders and governors. After years of claiming to fight for democracy, the Democratic Party seems to have cast it aside.


Metaculus Prediction


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