World Is Facing Dangers From Trade Tensions to Debt, OECD Warns
BloombergNOV 2024
OECD Projects Global Economy to Grow 3.3% in 2025-2026, Warns of Risks
Above: OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann during a Bloomberg Television interview at the COP29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024. Image copyright: Andrew Harnik/Poll/AFP via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
As Donald Trump prepares to take office for a second term at the White House, a forecast that assumes no changes in trade policies is set for failure. Rather than a steady growth in the coming years, the global economy is likely to take a hit from tariffs he has pledged to impose.
Narrative B
Whether you believe that the next Trump administration will harm the world economy or boost GDP growth in the US, the fact is that his trade plans will hardly be implemented in full — let alone cause a macro impact in the near term. If these projections don't stand, other reasons are likely to blame.