The Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

While it's true that Russia has been resilient in the face of global sanctions, the West has still been able to freeze hundreds of billions of dollars worth of assets, a percentage of which will go to Kyiv. The latest of these valuable assets is the Russian diamond trade, which totals $4.4B globally and $1.6B in the EU. Once Europe acquires these assets, it will be able to offer Ukraine the funding it needs to arm new waves of conscripts and push Moscow back.

Pro-Russia narrative

Zelenkyy's own advisors are now against both lowering the age of conscription and continuing the war more generally. As the world has known for a while now, Western powers have blocked Kyiv from achieving peace since their purposely failed Minsk agreements a decade ago through the failed peace negotiations in Istanbul at the start of this war. Now that Ukraine is being called out even by the Pentagon for misappropriation of military assets, momentum is increasingly on the Kremlin's side.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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