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FOX NewsSEP 22 2024
Polls: Harris Leading Trump Nationwide, Virtual Tie in Swing States
Above: Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, walks onstage during a campaign rally at the Expo at World Market Center on September 29, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Image copyright: Mario Tama/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Facts
A string of national polls released this week show Democratic candidate Vice Pres. Kamala Harris ahead of her Republican opponent, former Pres. Donald Trump, with polling averages indicating a two-to-five-point lead nationally.
Two polls released on Thursday found that Harris has a one-to-two-point lead over Trump in the race for the White House — 50% to 48%, according to Emerson College, and 50.7% to 49.3%, according to Activote.
Harris enjoys a three-point advantage, 48% to 45%, among both likely voters and registered voters, according to The Economist/YouGov, and five-point leads in Morning Consult and SP&R polls — 51% to 46% and 49% to 44%, respectively.
The Spin
Republican narrative
Polls underestimated support for Trump both in 2016 and 2020, so these latest results are actually very positive for the Republican ticket. Compared to previous cycles, this is Trump's best chance to win by a landslide — and even to secure the popular vote.
Democratic narrative
Given that Harris has consistently been ahead of Trump in polls, Republicans have resorted to the fact that support for Trump was underestimated in the previous election cycles. One should not expect them to be inaccurate again, though, as pollsters have worked to improve their methodologies.
Metaculus Prediction
Public Figures
The Controversies
Political split
More neutral political stance articles
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