Polls Show Trump Leads Biden, Faces Mixed Results Against Others

Polls Show Trump Leads Biden, Faces Mixed Results Against Others
Above: Former Pres. Donald Trump and Pres. Joe Biden at the first presidential debate in June 2024. Image copyright: Justin Sullivan/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • The latest Emerson College Polling survey released Tuesday shows former Pres. Donald Trump has a three-point lead over Pres. Joe Biden in the nationwide matchup, 46-43%, as the Democratic nominee has been subjected to calls to exit the race since his subpar debate performance last month.

  • The survey also found the presumptive GOP nominee ahead in hypothetical head-to-head matchups against nine potential Biden replacements — including Vice President Kamala Harris, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom.


The Spin

Narrative A

Enough with the insurgency, Biden is the Democratic nominee and isn't going anywhere. Now that it's clear that the party elites, pundits, and donors want him out of the race, Biden must go directly to the American people and defeat Trump for the good of the country.

Narrative B

It's clear that Biden is no longer fit to run for office and Trump will easily defeat him to regain the White House. There's no alternative to protect democratic institutions from a MAGA-led administration other than convincing Biden to step aside — and choosing any of the qualified potential replacements through an open process.

Republican narrative

Trump has a clear path to return to the White House, especially if Biden stays in the race and the Democratic infighting intensifies. While the Democrats are destroying themselves, Trump's leadership in polls gets wider.


Metaculus Prediction




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