Polls: Trump Leads Opponents, Biden's Approval Rating Drops

Polls: Trump Leads Opponents, Biden's Approval Rating Drops
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The Spin

Democratic narrative

While these polls aren't showing Biden in the best position, the president's re-election campaign has been strategizing for every possibility regarding the general election. If Trump is his opponent, they'll successfully point to the former president's increasing use of Nazi-like rhetoric and his tax cuts for the rich. If Haley is the GOP nominee, then Biden can point to her omission of slavery when asked about the causes of the Civil War. Biden has more than enough time and resources to make a comeback.

Republican narrative

Trump's current polling doesn't mean he's a shoo-in for the nomination. The former president is facing tough competitors in Haley and DeSantis, as well as ongoing litigation and lawsuits. Trump's confidence comes from retaining 50% of the vote in polls. Still, there are many more states to go, and if Haley and DeSantis start to gain higher double-digit results, he could see a decline as the primary season continues.

Pro-Trump narrative

Beyond the insurmountable polling advantage Trump currently enjoys as the primaries begin, the former president has also welcomed the endorsements of almost two dozen US senators as he competes against his bought-and-paid-for opponents. In fact, Trump's former opponent, Marco Rubio, who used to call Trump a "con artist," has thrown his weight behind the frontrunner because he knows the America First policies he desires won't get passed if the neocons on the ballot get nominated.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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