Powell: US Economy No Longer Overheated But Faces Risks

Powell: US Economy No Longer Overheated But Faces Risks
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The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

As the US continues to make progress on inflation, it seems like the Fed may finally be willing to cut interest rates in the near future. Consumer prices have cooled significantly over the past two years, and the economy is essentially back to pre-pandemic norms in many regards. Patience has paid off, and with a few more months of positive developments, rates may fall. Various factors are always at play, but the US has essentially overcome its biggest obstacle in inflation.

Establishment-critical narrative

Despite nominal progress on inflation, the Fed is essentially playing whack-a-mole when it comes to managing economic risks. While down significantly from record levels, inflation remains well above the 2% target, and the US is on the brink of major economic stagnation and increased unemployment. Powell must balance consumer prices with the dangers of weakened economic activity. The US economy seems to take one step forward and two steps back.

Metaculus Prediction


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