Kamala Harris will win election, predicts leading historian Allan Lichtman
GuardianSEP 2024
Presidential Prognosticator Lichtman Predicts Harris Will Defeat Trump
Above: Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event at IBEW Local Union #5 on September 02, 2024 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Image copyright: Michael M. Santiago/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Democratic narrative
While 'The Keys to the White House' is a prediction model rather than the actual vote, the fact that Allan Lichtman has forecast a Harris win is indeed great news. His record on predicting the outcome of presidential elections is remarkable — it looks like Harris has good odds.
Republican narrative
Lichtman has no objective method. He rather relies on highly questionable conclusions, such as that the Democratic Party is united, that Bidenomics have been good for the American economy, and that foreign policy success and failures remain inconclusive. Using indisputable facts, the keys would favor Trump.