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Presidential Prognosticator Lichtman Predicts Harris Will Defeat Trump

  • #Politics
  • #United States of America
Presidential Prognosticator Lichtman Predicts Harris Will Defeat Trump
story
SEP 2024
Above: Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign event at IBEW Local Union #5 on September 02, 2024 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Image copyright: Michael M. Santiago/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images
story last updated SEP 2024

The Spin

Democratic narrative

While 'The Keys to the White House' is a prediction model rather than the actual vote, the fact that Allan Lichtman has forecast a Harris win is indeed great news. His record on predicting the outcome of presidential elections is remarkable — it looks like Harris has good odds.

The Daily Beast

Republican narrative

Lichtman has no objective method. He rather relies on highly questionable conclusions, such as that the Democratic Party is united, that Bidenomics have been good for the American economy, and that foreign policy success and failures remain inconclusive. Using indisputable facts, the keys would favor Trump.

The Western Journal

Metaculus Prediction


The Controversies


KAMALA HARRISDONALD TRUMP
Status:Resolved
Who Will Win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Controversy
SEP 6 2024SEP 6 2024

Go Deeper

US Electoral System Overview
Context
+12
JUL 2024JUL 2024

Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

Kamala Harris will win election, predicts leading historian Allan Lichtman
GuardianSEP 2024
Nate Silver's Election Model Shows Donald Trump Surging
NewsweekSEP 2024
Election ‘Nostradamus’ predicts Kamala Harris will win 2024 presidential race
New York PostSEP 2024
Presidential election 'Nostradamus' who has correctly predicted almost every winner for 40 years reveals Kamala Harris as his 2024 pick
Daily MailSEP 2024
When Nate Silver Acknowledges the Obvious – Trump Is Still The Favorite
Red StateSEP 2024

More neutral political stance articles

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads By 6 Points In Latest Likely Voter Survey
ForbesSEP 2024
Historian who accurately predicted 9 of last 10 presidential elections makes his 2024 pick
USA TodaySEP 2024
63 days to election: Betting odds split down the middle for Harris and Trump
USA TodaySEP 2024