Report: Earth May Have Surpassed 7 of 9 'Planetary Boundaries'

Report: Earth May Have Surpassed 7 of 9 'Planetary Boundaries'
Above: Icebergs around the Svalbard are seen during the 4th National Arctic Scientific Research Expedition on the Arctic Ocean on July 23, 2024. Image copyright: Sebnem Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

The release of the first Planetary Health Check Report represents a significant step forward in our understanding and preservation of Earth's stability and resilience. Staying within the safe operating zone of the nine planetary boundaries is critical to establishing a stable and sustainable world. Surpassing a boundary heightens the risk of irreversibly altering Earth's life support systems and crossing critical points. This is a call to action to mobilize political support to help restore already breached boundaries.

Narrative B

The notion of planetary boundaries is flawed and may mislead global environmental management initiatives. Six of the nine proposed boundaries don't actually have clear global biophysical limits — land use change, nitrogen levels, species loss, freshwater use, chemical pollution, and aerosol loading. In other words, there are no apparent global tipping points for these boundaries that would cause natural systems to behave differently than they have historically.

Metaculus Prediction


The Controversies



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