Trump Makes Gains in Election Betting Markets

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Oct 11, 2024

Above: Former US President Donald Trump departs following an address to the Detroit Economic Club at the Sound Board Theater in Detroit, Michigan, US, on Oct. 10, 2024. Image copyright: Sarah Rice/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Imagesstory last updated Oct 13

The Facts

According to election betting markets, former Pres. Donald Trump is predicted to win the US 2024 presidential election by an average margin of 53.2%-45.8% against his Democratic opponent, Vice Pres. Kamala Harris.
Part of Trump's recent rise in betting predictions, which has seen a 5% average jump for the former president in the past week and a 5% drop for Harris, comes from the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket, which has Trump winning 55.8%-43.5%.

The Spin

Republican narrative

The betting odds absolutely do mean something, and Donald Trump is soaring ahead in these markets. The timing of this isn't random at all, as the markets began trending toward Trump in response to Harris' recent speaking tours, most notably her terrible 60 Minutes interview. Things will only get worse for Harris as more Americans hear her on the campaign trail.

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Democratic narrative

This surge in pro-Trump betting should be taken with a grain of salt for two reasons. One is that it only recently became legal to gamble on US elections, which means people — particularly the wealthy who wish to prop up their preferred candidate's position — are betting with zeal now. This artificial bump in Trump's favor will likely cool off before Nov. 5.

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