UK General Election 2024 Guide

UK General Election 2024 Guide
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The Facts

  • UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced on May 22 that, having sought permission from King Charles III to dissolve Parliament, the UK will hold a general election on July 4.

  • Sunak's announcement was carried out in accordance with the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act — legislation from 2022 that replaced the Fixed-term Parliaments Act of 2011. While the maximum term of parliament remains five years and was set to expire on Dec. 17, the new legislation permits Sunak and coming governments to fix a dissolution date of their choice.


The Spin

Tory narrative

While the Conservatives have undeniably made some past mistakes, the UK now boasts strong growth, and inflation is finally back to target levels. Labour is pro-tax, pro-regulation, pro-migration, and weak on national security — to place unjustified trust in a party and a leader that lack a credible plan is a risk the public simply cannot afford to take. As for those wishing to punish Sunak for the mistakes of previous leaders by voting Reform, this will only serve to allow Keir Starmer to enter Downing Street, thereby putting the UK in a worse place.

Labour narrative

With a vast polling gap and little chance of success, Sunak's shock election announcement can only be justified by the assumption that things were only going to get worse for the Tory government. Economic growth and inflation are both set to stumble in the second half of 2024, flights to Rwanda remain legally unfeasible despite the best attempts of the Conservatives to ignore the country's international commitments, and both immigration and NHS waiting lists remain at historic highs. While Labour may have been taken by surprise, the election result seems destined to remain a Starmer victory.

Reform narrative

The return of Nigel Farage is the Conservative Party's worst nightmare. Farage is now back at the very center of British politics, and his UK-first, anti-woke agenda has given life to an otherwise boring and out of touch election. With a focus on cracking down on crime, immigration, and needles spending, Reform are quickly demonstrating to the vast number of disgruntled Tory and Labour voters that they're the best party to lead a strong opposition capable of holding Starmer accountable within the next Parliament.

Progressive narrative

While it's time for Sunak to go, Starmer and Labour have provided little reassurance that they will be the anti-austerity, pro-worker antidote that the UK desperately needs. It's vital that, as Labour continues to shift to the right, support for vital issues such as Palestine, trade unions, and the environment remains at the very heart of the UK's grassroots movement.


Metaculus Prediction




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