Controversy
Status:Resolved
When Will Inflation Reach the Bank of England’s 2% Target?
Resolution:
May 2024.
Resolved on Jun 19, 2024
Claims
Bank of England"We expect inflation to keep falling next year and meet our 2% target by late 2024."May 11, 2023
Bank of EnglandWhile inflation will reach 2% in the "near term," the rate will increase again to approximately 2.5% in the "second half" of 2024.May 09, 2024
Andrew Bailey"We think it will fall close to our 2% target in the next couple of months."May 09, 2024
Office for Budget Responsibility"We forecast inflation to hit the 2 per cent target in the second quarter of 2024."Mar 06, 2024
National Institute of Economic and Social Research"Inflation will "most likely" reach between 1.8-2.1% in May 2024 before increasing again."May 22, 2024
Centre for Economics and Business Research"[W]e don't share the conclusion reached by the Bank of England or other forecasters that inflation will come back down to the 2% target very quickly."Mar 06, 2023
Pantheon Macroeconomics"The headline rate still looks set to fall below the 2% target in Q2, with core CPI inflation down to 3.0% by May."Feb 13, 2024
Bank of England"CPI inflation is now projected to fall temporarily to the 2% target in 2024 Q2 before increasing again in Q3 and Q4."May 29, 2024
Bank of England"We think it [inflation] is likely to be around 2% in the coming months, due [to] energy prices being lower than they were a year ago."Mar 23, 2023
Andrew Bailey"I think to get back to the 2% target... we should see this happen... through next year [2024], towards the end."Jul 06, 2023
Dave RamsdenA "scenario where inflation stays close to the 2% target over the whole forecast period [is] at least as likely" as the Bank of England's forecast.Apr 19, 2024
Office for Budget Responsibility"We now expect it [inflation] to fall further to an average of 2.2 per cent this year and 1.5 per cent in 2025 before gradually returning to target at the end of the forecast period in [2028-29]."Mar 06, 2024
National Institute of Economic and Social Research"We forecast inflation to remain continually above [the Bank of England's 2%] target until 2025."Apr 24, 2024
Sanjay Raja"While it will be bumpy, we think the annual CPI rate will fall below 2% by April-24".Jan 10, 2024
Citigroup"With inflation now set to fall to 2% in the second quarter, we think the imminent danger is fading."Mar 12, 2024
