When Will Inflation Reach the Bank of England’s 2% Target?

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May 2024.

Resolved on Jun 19, 2024

When Will Inflation Reach the Bank of England’s 2% Target?

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Last Updated 1 year ago

Bank of England"We expect inflation to keep falling next year and meet our 2% target by late 2024."May 11, 2023

Bank of England

Bank of EnglandWhile inflation will reach 2% in the "near term," the rate will increase again to approximately 2.5% in the "second half" of 2024.

Andrew BaileyUK inflation is taking "a lot longer than expected" to bring down.

Andrew Bailey"We think it will fall close to our 2% target in the next couple of months."

Office for Budget Responsibility"We forecast inflation to hit the 2 per cent target in the second quarter of 2024."

National Institute of Economic and Social Research"Inflation will "most likely" reach between 1.8-2.1% in May 2024 before increasing again."

Centre for Economics and Business Research"[W]e don't share the conclusion reached by the Bank of England or other forecasters that inflation will come back down to the 2% target very quickly."

Pantheon Macroeconomics"The headline rate still looks set to fall below the 2% target in Q2, with core CPI inflation down to 3.0% by May."

ING Bank"We ... expect April's fall in energy prices to drag headline CPI below 2% - and its a bit of a coin toss as to whether this happens in April or May."

Bank of England"CPI inflation is now projected to fall temporarily to the 2% target in 2024 Q2 before increasing again in Q3 and Q4."

Bank of England"We think it [inflation] is likely to be around 2% in the coming months, due [to] energy prices being lower than they were a year ago."Mar 23, 2023

Bank of England

Andrew Bailey"I think to get back to the 2% target... we should see this happen... through next year [2024], towards the end."

Dave RamsdenA "scenario where inflation stays close to the 2% target over the whole forecast period [is] at least as likely" as the Bank of England's forecast.

Office for Budget Responsibility"We now expect it [inflation] to fall further to an average of 2.2 per cent this year and 1.5 per cent in 2025 before gradually returning to target at the end of the forecast period in [2028-29]."