US Election: Harris Leads Fox News Forecast

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SEP 13 2024

Above: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris debate at The National Constitution Center on September 10, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Image copyright: Win McNamee/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Imagesstory last updated SEP 13 2024

The Facts

The latest Fox News Power Rankings presidential forecast shows US Vice Pres. Kamala Harris in the lead for the first time, with 241 electoral votes to former Pres. Donald Trump's projected 219.
This comes as Fox News moved Georgia and North Carolina from lean Republican to toss-up, meaning there are now six competitive races — the other four being Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — worth 78 electoral votes.
Based on Nate Silver's state polling average as of Thursday, Harris would secure the 270 votes needed to clinch the White House as she currently leads Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nebraska's second district — though the first by only a 0.2% margin.

The Spin

Democratic narrative

Harris brilliantly exposed Trump's worst and most dangerous qualities while also offering the country a bright future under her leadership. She articulated clear policy proposals, and skillfully balanced compassion with pragmatism on sensitive topics, including abortion and foreign policy, to convince undecided voters that she represents a better way forward for the US.

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Republican narrative

Trump was at a disadvantage the whole night because ABC decided to team up with Harris — interrupting and fact-checking him while letting his rival get away with false rhetoric. Somehow Trump overcame those obstacles to dominate the debate — making major points on immigration, the economy, and ending endless wars — leading to a bump for the GOP candidate in key battleground states.

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