US Election: Harris Leads Fox News Forecast

US Election: Harris Leads Fox News Forecast
Above: Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris debate at The National Constitution Center on September 10, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Image copyright: Win McNamee/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Spin

Democratic narrative

Harris brilliantly exposed Trump's worst and most dangerous qualities while also offering the country a bright future under her leadership. She articulated clear policy proposals, and skillfully balanced compassion with pragmatism on sensitive topics, including abortion and foreign policy, to convince undecided voters that she represents a better way forward for the US.

Republican narrative

Trump was at a disadvantage the whole night because ABC decided to team up with Harris — interrupting and fact-checking him while letting his rival get away with false rhetoric. Somehow Trump overcame those obstacles to dominate the debate — making major points on immigration, the economy, and ending endless wars — leading to a bump for the GOP candidate in key battleground states.

Metaculus Prediction



The Controversies



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