US Home Sales Plunged to Nearly 30-Year Low in 2023

US Home Sales Plunged to Nearly 30-Year Low in 2023
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The Spin

Narrative A

With average mortgage rates considerably higher than they were two years ago and a chronic lack of inventory, the housing industry in the US shows little sign of improving. It's even worse for first-time home buyers, who historically account for up to 40% of the sales, as they have no home equity to finance their investment. This situation looks dire.

Narrative B

While the demand-supply imbalance will carry into 2024, things are set to ease up ahead in the US real estate market. Mortgage rates were already slipping by December, when they hit a six-month low of 6.61%. Meanwhile, new listings are witnessing a revival, too, which could help buyers over time.

Metaculus Prediction


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