US Says Venezuela's Opposition Candidate Won Presidential Election

US Says Venezuela's Opposition Candidate Won Presidential Election
Above: Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado and opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez wave a Venezuelan Flag during a protest against the result of the presidential election on July 30, 2024 in Caracas, Venezuela. Image copyright: Alfredo Lasry R/Stringer/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • The US Department of State said in a statement on Thursday that opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia won Venezuela's disputed presidential election, prompting a strong response from Caracas the next day.

  • The declaration is reminiscent of the US recognition of former opposition leader and head of the National Assembly Juan Guaidó as the legitimate interim president of Venezuela in 2019, following the 2018 presidential election.

  • This comes as the National Election Council (CNE) declared incumbent Nicolás Maduro as the winner with 51% of the vote, but the opposition claimed that results from 80% of the tallies indicated González had secured 67% of the vote.

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

This mockery of an election has shown that all efforts to ensure a peaceful democratic transition for Venezuela were in vain because Maduro never really intended to carry out free and fair elections — let alone to leave power. The US has already recognized González as the rightful winner, so now the rest of the world's democracies must follow suit.

Establishment-critical narrative

Available results are statistically irreversible and have already been audited 16 times, so it's clear that the US is pushing for a coup in Venezuela. Declaring González the winner only shows its willingness to justify armed action to topple President-elect Nicolás Maduro and appoint a puppet to run the oil-rich country in disregard of the will of Venezuelans.

Metaculus Prediction

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